One day before the presidential election, early voting turnout in Virginia is falling short of the historic highs seen in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

As of Sunday, more than 2.29 million Virginians have already cast their ballots — a 525,000 decrease from the unprecedented 2.82 million early votes cast by Nov. 3, 2020, during the last presidential election, according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project. 

In-person was the most popular option for early voters this year. On Saturday alone — the last day for early in-person voting during this election cycle — 139,376 cast their ballot. In total, 1.856 million  early voters did so in person, with just 437,173 voting by mail.

Despite an initial wave of early voting in the southern and western parts of the state, the pattern of early ballot casting is about the same as some elections in more recent years, said David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg. 

“Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads seem to have had higher percentage rates of early voting, but there were some interesting things as urban areas, cities, and towns seemed to often, but not always, have higher turnout rates,” Richards said. That could reflect that it’s easier to mobilize people if you have a denser population base to organize, he added. 

“Overall rates are down compared to 2020, but that was the pandemic election, so the early voting rate is actually pretty decent. Most precincts have rates above 10%, many in the mid-40s, and at least a couple hit 50%, which is pretty impressive.”

Democrats celebrate early voting turnout, Republicans see state in play amid mixed messaging from Trump

As early voting numbers in Virginia show strong turnout from both Democrats and Republicans, both parties remain optimistic heading into Election Day. 

While the state’s nonpartisan voter registration system keeps early vote totals from revealing party affiliation — adding an element of suspense for both sides as they each express confidence in their momentum — Republicans have remained vocal in their belief that the state remains in play, despite consistent polling showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a comfortable lead over former President Donald Trump.

Richards, the political scientist, noted how early voting in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District in far Southwest Virginia, a GOP stronghold where Rep. Morgan Griffith, R-Salem, faces Democratic challenger Karen Baker, was particularly noteworthy. 

“That district came out blazing hot but has settled down. They are closest to the 2020 turnout compared to other house districts, but in the previous election, they had the lowest turnout for early voting, so perhaps the bar was set low,” Richards said. 

However, this development might also reflect the GOP’s effort to turn out the vote in an area of the state where Gov. Glenn Youngkin stressed the need for Republicans to vote early, Richards said.

“It seems like they responded. I think the Democrats may have taken a more leisurely approach, which is why we see Northern Virginia surging later in the early voting period.”

Because voters in Virginia don’t register by party affiliation, early-voting data offers little certainty about which way the election will go, but also looking at numbers in more partisan localities might offer hints. 

Susan Swecker, the chair of the Democratic Party of Virginia, said in a statement that with over 2.3 million early votes cast — led by Democratic strongholds — Virginians have already made their voices heard that they choose the Harris ticket over Trump’s. 

“Late-deciding voters are breaking toward Vice President Harris by double digits, especially among independent women and seniors who are done with Trump. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will resoundingly win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes,” Swecker said.

Meanwhile, Republican voters, previously hesitant to vote early, have shown increased participation in recent weeks, possibly due to GOP-led efforts highlighting the convenience and security of early voting — and despite or maybe because of Trump’s mixed messaging on the benefits of early voting. 

During a telephone rally hosted by Youngkin in September, the Republican nominee urged his supporters to use “every appropriate tool to beat the radical left Democrats” and to not wait until Election Day to cast their ballots. “You’ve heard a lot about voting by mail, but that’s what we have right now.”  

But only hours later, at a rally in Indiana, Penn., Trump reversed course, calling early voting “stupid.”

Virginia GOP Chairman Rich Anderson still pushed back against the assumption that Republicans are still weary of early voting — despite the former president’s flip-flopping on this issue. 

“We’ve worked really hard to increase turnout and to encourage people to show up and vote early. Obviously, the Democrats started that much earlier than we did, they are further along, but I’m very pleased, and I know that the governor is, too, that we’ve been able to make progress on that and change our culture,” Anderson said in a phone interview Monday.

“So the early voting looks very good, and I’m glad to hear there are banked votes, but we’re also working very hard to turn out voters tomorrow to make a winning difference and we’ll see how it comes out tomorrow night.”

While a larger early turnout might seem advantageous for Democratic candidates, Republican strategists argue that their base traditionally turns out in higher numbers on Election Day itself, meaning they still anticipate strong performance as the final ballots are cast. 

The results may ultimately depend on whether early voting enthusiasm from Democrats translates to similar turnout on Election Day, said Richards, the political scientist.

“Just under 4.5 million people voted in 2020, again during the pandemic. I would expect to see higher vote totals this year despite somewhat lower early voting rates, as more people will feel comfortable voting in person on Tuesday,” he said.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include reactions from the political parties to the early voting data.